Record Korean Exports, Nikkei Surge, and ISM Manufacturing Anticipation: Key Trader Benchmarks
On Thursday, October 1, 2026 (data as of 12:30 Almaty time / UTC+5), global markets show an unusual split. Despite US core inflation (core PCE) slowing to 0.2% monthly, Treasury yields
On Thursday, October 1, 2026 (data as of 12:30 Almaty time / UTC+5), global markets show an unusual split. Despite US core inflation (core PCE) slowing to 0.2% monthly, Treasury yields are hitting peaks not seen since 2002 (30-year UST — 5.639%). Meanwhile, Asia received a strong boost from record chip exports from South Korea ($120.94 billion), propelling the Japanese Nikkei up by +3.1%.
USA: Inflation Softer Than Expected, but Yields at Highest Since 2002
PCE and Rates Data: Core PCE rose 0.2% monthly versus expectations of 0.3%. The probability of a Fed rate hike in October dropped from over 50% to 38%. However, hawkish comments from Fed members (Cook, Kashkari) and the budget deficit kept rates elevated.
Sector Divergence: High rates pressure financials, developers, and utilities. Meanwhile, the tech sector closed September with a +5% gain thanks to the AI boom.
Asia: South Korea’s Historic Export Record and Nikkei’s +3.1% Surge
AI Boom in Numbers: South Korea’s exports in September hit a record $120.94 billion (+83.5% YoY). Semiconductor sales surpassed $60 billion for the first time (+262.8%) amid rising DDR5 memory prices reaching $48 per chip. The trade surplus reached an astounding $49.85 billion.
Japan and Markets: The Japanese Nikkei rose to 68,840 (+3.1%), led by the semiconductor sector following a strong Micron report. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair jumped to 158.31.
Holidays in China: Mainland China and Hong Kong markets are closed for national holidays until October 7 — liquidity in the region will be reduced.
Commodities: Oil Stabilizes Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting
Logistics Recovery: Oil prices consolidate around $98.3 (Brent). Throughput via the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to 13.2 million barrels per day. The OPEC+ meeting will take place over the weekend, with current quotas expected to be maintained.
Calendar for Today (October 1, Almaty Time)
| Time | Event / Release | Forecast / Importance |
|---|---|---|
| — | Bank of Japan Tankan / Korea Exports | Published |
| 14:00 | Eurozone PMI and Unemployment | Medium |
| 17:30 | US Initial Jobless Claims | High |
| 19:00 | US ISM Manufacturing (September) | Key |
| Tomorrow | US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) | Critical |
Practical Takeaways for Traders:
- Correlation Breakdown: Rates stopped falling despite weak inflation. Do not trade on the template "weak inflation = stock rally."
- Liquidity Constraints: Weekend holidays in China will reduce volumes in Asia. Sharp price spikes and spread widening are possible.
- News Event Rules: Today at 19:00 (ISM) and tomorrow (NFP), a ±3-minute trading blackout rule applies. Close positions in advance.