Market Review October 22: Attack on Tankers, Tesla Capex Cut, and Pricing in 90% Probability of Fed Rate Hike
Thursday, October 22, 2026 (data as of 13:30 Almaty time / UTC+5), brought a sharp shift in sentiment. After a confident rise on Wall Street following the report of an incident involving seven tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil surged above $111.
Thursday, October 22, 2026 (data as of 13:30 Almaty time / UTC+5), brought a sharp shift in sentiment. After a confident rise on Wall Street following the report of an incident involving seven tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil surged above $111. Asian markets plunged (KOSPI −3.5%), and Tesla's capex cut sparked concerns over a revision of AI spending. Meanwhile, gold broke below $4,100 due to a spike in the probability of a December Fed rate hike to 90%.
Commodities: Brent Above $111 Due to Hormuz Events and Strikes on Oil Sector
Energy spike: According to media reports, seven tankers were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions are heightened by the evacuation of some US diplomatic staff from Saudi Arabia following Houthi attacks and NYT reports on US and Israeli military strike plans against Iranian targets after November 3.
Safe-haven assets: The Japanese yen responded to the escalation by strengthening to 157.01 per dollar, fulfilling its traditional safe-haven role.
Corporate Sector: Tesla Capex Cut and Asian Rout
Big Tech reports: A $9.89 billion legal charge hurt Meta's EPS ($3.83) despite strong revenue ($64.6 billion). Tesla cut annual capital expenditures from $25 billion to about $20 billion, which the market interpreted as a direct signal to reduce AI equipment orders.
| Index / Exchange | Level / Close | Change for the Day |
|---|---|---|
| KOSPI (Korea) | 5,533.77 | −3.50% |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 22,904.62 | −3.20% |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 62,907.84 | −2.70% |
| SoftBank / Tokyo Electron | Asia (Semiconductors) | −6.9% / −7.0% |
| Nasdaq 100 (Futures) | US Premarket | −1.0% … −1.6% |
Asian panic: The Japanese market lost ¥17.8 trillion in one session, while SK Hynix fell −5% amid concerns over slowing investments in data center infrastructure.
Money Market: Gold Breaks $4,100 and 90% Probability of Fed Hike
Precious metals market signal: Gold broke support and dropped to $4,070 (low $4,066.56), ignoring the escalation. Rising oil prices are causing the market to price in a 90% probability of a Fed rate hike in December.
Pressure mechanics: Rising inflation expectations due to expensive fuel outweigh the geopolitical premium: holding a non-yielding asset becomes too costly amid high real rates.
Trigger and Reference Calendar (October 22, Almaty Time)
| Date / Time | Event / Release | Status / Importance |
|---|---|---|
| 18:30 | US Main Session Open / Reports: P&G, Lockheed Martin, Comcast, Spotify | High |
| Friday | Reports: American Express, Schlumberger | Medium |
| October 27–28 | FOMC Meeting on Fed Rate + UK Budget | Critical |
| November 3 | US Midterm Elections (Geopolitical Deadline) | Key |
What Traders Should Watch:
- Uncertainty in oil: Tanker damage is not officially confirmed. Confirmation will trigger another Brent spike, while denial will cause a sharp position closeout.
- Reassessment of gold's safe-haven qualities: The rate factor fully outweighs geopolitics. Long positions in gold as conflict insurance have temporarily lost effectiveness.
- Strict margin control: Considering session volatility (oil 2.5%, gold 2%, KOSPI 3.5%), it is recommended to limit working margin usage to 50–55% of the deposit.