Market Review September 18: Bank of Japan Raises Rate to Highest Since 1995, Gold at $4,400, and Options Expiration
Today, Friday, September 18, 2026, marks the conclusion of the key events of the "week of three central banks." After the Fed's hawkish rate hike on Wednesday (to 3.75–4.00%) and the Bank of England's pause with a 6–3 vote split, the Bank of Japan took decisive action
Today, Friday, September 18, 2026, marks the conclusion of the key events of the "week of three central banks." Following the Fed's hawkish rate hike on Wednesday (to 3.75–4.00%) and the Bank of England's pause with a 6–3 vote split, the Bank of Japan took a decisive step by raising its rate to 1.25% — the highest since 1995. The week will culminate with the U.S. quarterly options expiration (Triple/Quadruple Witching), guaranteeing a surge in volatility and record volumes at the close of the American session.
Central Banks: Fed, Bank of England Results and Bank of Japan Record
U.S. Fed: A 25 bps rate hike (12–0) and a hawkish dot plot (16 of 18 members expect another hike by year-end) pushed the DXY above 100 and lifted 10-year yields above 5%. Markets price in nearly a 49% chance of a rate increase in October.
Bank of England: Held the rate at 3.75%, but a decisive 6–3 vote (three in favor of a hike) and warnings about energy inflation shifted tightening expectations to November.
Bank of Japan: Raised the rate by 25 bps to 1.25% (7–2) — the highest in 31 years. Markets await comments from Kazuo Ueda (06:30 UTC), with the USD/JPY pair steady around 156.
Stock Markets: Thursday Rebound and U.S. Expiration Factor
Market Recovery: Wall Street closed higher on Thursday amid a local pullback in oil prices. Asia supported the positive momentum on Friday: Kospi +2.3%, Nikkei gained over 1%.
Quarterly Expiration: The simultaneous expiration of four contract types will create choppy dynamics and impulsive moves toward the close of U.S. trading.
Oil: Correction to $104.5 Amid Persistent Infrastructure Risks
Local Relief: Brent fell to $104.5 on expectations of diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran.
Fundamental Background: The Strait of Hormuz is effectively blocked, and the Saudi East-West pipeline remains shut. High oil prices (above $100) are the main argument regulators use to justify tight policy.
Gold and Crypto: Surge to $4,400 and Bitcoin Stabilization Attempt
XAU/USD Technical Rebound: Gold rose to weekly highs in the $4,400–4,480 range thanks to a pullback in the dollar index. Holding above $4,400 will confirm a bullish signal.
Cryptocurrencies: BTC is stabilizing after a double hit (failure of the CLARITY Act and the Fed's hawkish stance). The key resistance zone for recovery is $80,000–83,000.
Main Events Calendar (UTC)
During the release of key macroeconomic data, a blackout period applies (±3 minutes). Opening, closing, and editing order parameters are unavailable during this time.
| Time (UTC) | Event and Indicators |
|---|---|
| 06:30 UTC | Press conference of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda |
| 13:15 UTC | U.S. Industrial Production (August) |
| All day | U.S. Quarterly Options Expiration (Quadruple Witching) — peak volatility at the close. |
Summary: The week’s close marked by options expiration may trigger unpredictable price moves at the close. Monitor margin limits (no more than 70% of the deposit) and secure key profits before the final hour of the U.S. session.