Market Review October 9: Gold Surges +1.8%, US Stocks Rebound, Oil Prices Decline
On Friday, October 9, 2026 (data as of 14:40 Almaty time / UTC+5), markets made a 180-degree turnaround. After Thursday's collapse due to the hawkish Fed minutes and oil jumping over 5%, tensions eased on Friday.
On Friday, October 9, 2026 (data as of 14:40 Almaty time / UTC+5), markets made a 180-degree turnaround. After Thursday's collapse due to the hawkish Fed minutes and oil jumping over 5%, tensions eased on Friday: Donald Trump's statements about a pause on Iran pushed oil back, a successful 30-year UST auction eased yield pressures, and gold made a strong rally of nearly 2%.
Rates and Debt: Strong UST Auction Gives Market a Breather
Fed Expectations: The market prices in about an 82% chance of a pause in October and an 81% chance of a rate hike in December. Fed Board member Christopher Waller confirmed the need for further steps to bring inflation back to 2%. The 10-year Treasury yield held at 5.238%.
Currency Desk: The euro remains weak (1.1212) amid political risks in Spain and France. The National Bank of Kazakhstan fixes the USD/KZT rate at 450.44 (+0.70%).
Stock Markets: US Futures Rebound and Mixed Europe
Tech Driver: S&P 500 futures gain +0.45% (around 7,797) after news that OpenAI expects to reach $70 billion in annual revenue by the end of 2026. In Germany, the DAX rises (+0.89%) despite Deutsche Telekom falling (−6%) due to SpaceX’s 800 MHz spectrum deal.
Asian Region: The Nikkei 225 closed flat (69,030), recovering from the morning dip. Xiaomi shares soared +7.5% on news of over 70,000 orders for the SkyNomad model.
| Index / Instrument | Value / Close | Change for the Day |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (Thu) | 7,764.00 | −0.49% |
| Nasdaq 100 (Thu) | 30,726.00 | −1.39% |
| DAX (Fri) | 25,029.00 | +0.89% |
| Nikkei 225 (Fri) | 69,030.00 | ~0.00% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1212 | +0.14% |
Commodities: Strong Gold Rally (+1.83%) and Oil Pullback
Precious Metals Rally: Gold broke the $4,184 level on dollar weakness. The fundamentals support this: ETF holdings reached a record (4,256 tons), and the Chinese central bank has been increasing reserves for the 23rd consecutive month (to 77.47 million ounces).
Oil Factor: Donald Trump's statements about productive negotiations reduced the geopolitical risk premium. However, the depth of the pullback is limited — Hurricane Isaias has shut down about 63% of production in the Gulf of Mexico (1.3 million barrels/day).
Key Levels and Event Calendar (UTC+5)
• Resistances: 4,226 / 4,272 / 4,311
• Supports: 4,184 (broken — key threshold) / 4,142 / 4,103
| Time / Date | Event / Release | Status / Importance |
|---|---|---|
| Fri (19:00) | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USA) | High |
| October 14 | US Consumer Price Index (CPI) | Key |
| October 15 | US Producer Price Index (PPI) | High |
What Traders Should Watch:
- High Volatility Swings: The market instantly re-prices assets on rate and Iran headlines. 180-degree reversals require strict position size reduction.
- Preparation for CPI and PPI: Next week’s inflation data will reprice the odds of a December Fed hike (currently 81%). Factor this momentum into your risk management in advance.
- YouTrade Discipline: Margin load limit is 70% of the deposit. Trading within ±3 minutes around red news (including triggering of pending orders and stops) is strictly prohibited.