Market Review August 31: Brent Surges Above $90 After US and Iran Strikes, Fed Prepares Rate Hike, Gold Falls
Today, August 31, 2026, global markets start the new week under dual pressure. The resumption of missile strikes between the US and Iran pushed Brent above $90 per barrel, while the "hawkish" rhetoric of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh raised the odds
Today, August 31, 2026, global markets begin the new week under dual pressure. The resumption of missile strikes between the US and Iran pushed Brent above $90 per barrel, while the "hawkish" rhetoric of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh raised the probability of a September rate hike to 57%. This intensified the flight of investors from risk assets and triggered sell-offs on stock exchanges.
Commodity Market: Brent Above $90 Amid Strikes in the Strait of Hormuz
Geopolitics: On Sunday, the US struck Iranian targets on Larak Island, Iran responded with attacks in Jordan and shelling of a tanker. The number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 5 per day due to mine-laying threats.
Outlook: According to Goldman Sachs, Gulf oil exports have recovered to 15–16 million barrels per day, but with a direct attack on key infrastructure, Brent prices could quickly exceed $95. The US is also discussing replenishing reserves with oil from Venezuela.
Stock Indices: Sell-Offs in Asia and US Futures Decline
Asia and Europe: MSCI Asia Pacific falls 0.6%, Nikkei 225 down 0.4%, CSI 300 down 0.4% (China’s manufacturing PMI at 49.8). EURO STOXX 50 and DAX futures lose 0.2–0.3%. Rising fuel costs pressure retail, airlines, and industry.
US: American futures decline 0.1–0.2%. Investors factor in rising production costs due to oil and further tightening of credit conditions.
Fed Rates, Strengthening Dollar, and Gold Decline
Macroeconomics and Debt: Kevin Warsh’s speech raised the probability of a September rate hike to 57%. The yield on 2-year US bonds holds at 4.34%, 30-year bonds at 5.21%. The DXY index rose to 99.6, EUR/USD fell to 1.1590, and USD/JPY finds support near 159.8.
Safe Havens and Crypto: Gold dropped to $1,425 (-0.6% for the day, -3.2% on Friday) as high bond yields outweigh geopolitical risks. Bitcoin trades around $78,000 within a $77,200–79,300 range, risking a pullback to $74,000 if support at $77,000 is lost.
Key Events of the Week:
The G20 finance ministers summit is taking place in North Carolina (topics: Strait of Hormuz, sanctions, inflation). The main focus of the week is the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday (forecast: +58K).
| Time / Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Aug 31 – Sep 1 | Meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank heads |
| August 31 | Preliminary inflation data in Germany |
| Friday, Sep 4 | US Labor Market Report (Non-Farm Payrolls) for August |
Summary: Missile strikes in the Middle East and the Fed’s hawkish tone have created a volatile mix: rising oil prices threaten a new wave of inflation, while tight monetary policy pressures stock indices, gold, and cryptocurrencies. The key drivers this week are geopolitical news from the Gulf and Friday’s US employment report.