Dollar Peak Since April 2025: Gold Breaks $4,000, Yen Approaches 160, and Nvidia Plummets in After-Hours Trading
On Thursday, November 12, 2026 (data as of 12:30 Almaty time / UTC+5), markets diverged: Wall Street closed higher the day before (S&P 500 +1.31%, Nasdaq +1.6%), but Asia is falling today following Nvidia's 8.6% drop after hours.
On Thursday, November 12, 2026 (data as of 12:30 Almaty time / UTC+5), markets diverged: Wall Street closed higher the day before (S&P 500 +1.31%, Nasdaq +1.6%), but Asia is falling today following Nvidia's 8.6% plunge after the close. Gold broke the psychological $4,000 level and is trading down for the third consecutive session, the dollar index DXY rose to 102.84 — the highest since April 2025, and the yen approached the 160 per dollar mark. The main factor of the week is the fully priced-in Fed rate hike in December.
Stocks and Markets: Wall Street Rally, Asia Declines, and Nvidia Drops 8.6%
Session gap: The S&P 500 nearly fully recovered last week's sell-off and is 2.6% below the October record, led by semiconductors. CoreWeave shares jumped 24.7% after a quarterly loss smaller than expected, Intel gained 7.52%, Alphabet 2.11%, Tesla 2.91%. However, after hours, Nvidia plunged 8.6% on news of a board meeting regarding CEO Jensen Huang — Asia was the first to react to this news.
| Asian Index | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Taiex (Taiwan) | — | −2.60% |
| Hang Seng | 24,034.38 | −1.20% |
| Nikkei 225 | 60,798.84 | −0.70% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,657.03 | −0.60% |
| KOSPI | 5,364.26 | −0.20% |
180-degree reversal: Taiwan, which gained 3.1% yesterday, is down 2.6% today. Nasdaq 100 futures are down about 0.9% — the US session opens with negative sentiment already priced in for the tech sector.
Macro and Fed: Dollar at 1.5-Year High, 87% Priced-In Rate Hike
Rate expectations: US inflation exceeded forecasts for the third consecutive month, and following comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, the market fully priced in a rate hike on December 8–9. The current range is 3.75–4.00%. The dollar index rose 0.64% on Wednesday and holds at 102.84, while the euro dropped to its lowest since May 2025.
| Instrument / Asset | Current Level | Change / Status |
|---|---|---|
| DXY Index | 102.84 | Highest since April 2025 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1080–1.1098 | Lowest since May 2025 |
| USD/JPY | 159.58–159.78 | Intervention risk near 160 |
| Fed Rate (Dec 8–9), +25 bps | ~87% probability | Fully priced in |
| Fed Rate (Dec 8–9), +50 bps | over 10% | Rising after CPI |
Yen at risk: As it approaches 160, the likelihood of verbal or actual intervention by the Bank of Japan sharply increases. Short yen positions at these levels cease to be a one-sided bet — the move can reverse sharply and without warning.
Commodities and Crypto: Gold Breaks $4,000, Brent Slides to $92.51
Gold below round level: Third consecutive losing session — rising real rates and a strong dollar outweigh inflation demand. The Asian range was $3,975–4,000. The $4,000 level turned from support into resistance: as long as the price stays below it, the technical picture is bearish, with next targets at $3,975 and $3,929. Silver holds up noticeably better and remains above $51.
Oil in balance: WTI trades around $85.95–86.29. Pressure comes from reports of possible direct US-Iran talks and a roughly 9 million barrel increase in US crude inventories. Against the decline are Iran's statement that enriched nuclear material will not be exported and ongoing shipping disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz. A sideways trend is expected in the short term.
Crypto in range: Bitcoin is squeezed for the third session between $73,100 and $74,700 near three-month lows. Ethereum holds near $2,059.66 (+0.27%). Rising rates pressure cryptocurrencies for the same reasons as gold.
Main Events Calendar (November 12, UTC+5)
| Date / Time | Event / Release / Reports | Status / Importance |
|---|---|---|
| 11/12 (12:00) | UK: GDP for Q3 and September | High |
| 11/12 (18:30) | US: Initial Jobless Claims | Critical |
| 11/12 (20:00) | US: Existing Home Sales | Medium |
| 11/12 (21:15) | Speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee | High |
| 11/12 (23:01) | US: 30-Year Bond Auction | High |
| 11/12 (after close) | Reports from Cisco and Applied Materials | AI Sector Test |
| 11/13 (00:30) | Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde | High |
What Traders Should Watch:
- Gap between Wall Street and Asia: The Nvidia news came after US market close, and Asia was the first to react. The US session opens today with negative sentiment already priced in for the tech sector — be cautious with longs on chipmakers ahead of Cisco and Applied Materials reports.
- Gold below $4,000: Breaking the round level after three weeks of holding changes the technical picture — former support now caps upside. A return above $4,000 will require either weak US data or new geopolitical developments.
- Yen near 160: This is a high-risk zone, not a trend continuation. In case of Bank of Japan intervention, the move reverses sharply and without warning.
- YouTrade News Windows: Strict prohibition on any trading operations and order modifications (including stop-losses and take-profits) during windows 18:27–18:33 (jobless claims), 19:57–20:03 (home sales), 21:12–21:18 (Goolsbee speech), and 22:58–23:04 (30-year auction). Adjust your risks in advance.