Market Review October 19: US Futures Rebound, Strong China Data, and Anticipation of Tesla and Meta Reports
On Monday, October 19, 2026 (data as of 12:50 Almaty time / UTC+5), the week began with a rebound attempt in the tech sector ahead of the busiest earnings week of the quarter (Tesla, Meta, IBM). Brent oil dropped to $108.
On Monday, October 19, 2026 (data as of 12:50 Almaty time / UTC+5), the week started with a rebound attempt in the technology sector ahead of the busiest earnings week of the quarter (Tesla, Meta, IBM). Brent oil fell to $108 following a relaxation of US sanctions policy, while data from China showed an unexpected acceleration of GDP to +4.5% year-on-year, and retail sales nearly tripled.
China and Asia: Strong GDP (+4.5%) and Pressure on Semiconductors
China's Economic Momentum: China's GDP for Q3 grew by 4.5% year-on-year versus a forecast of 4.3%, and industrial production rose by 5.5%. This helped the CSI 300 index close in positive territory (+0.3%). Markets await the LPR base rate decision on Tuesday.
Tensions in Chips: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) ended last week down 11.4% (the longest losing streak since 2008). Samsung and SK Hynix remain under pressure, while the KOSPI trades near the 5,000-point mark.
Wall Street and the Fed: Nasdaq Rebounds (+1.2%) and Expectations Shift to December
Monetary Policy Background: The probability of a Fed rate hike at the October meeting plunged to ~15%. The market shifted its main focus to December (the chance of a 0.25% step exceeds 90%). The 10-year UST yield fell to 5.059%, and the dollar index dropped to a two-week low (~101.60).
| Instrument / Contract | Level / Value | Change for the Day |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 (Futures) | Rebound | +0.9% … +1.2% |
| S&P 500 (Futures) | Movement | +0.5% … +0.7% |
| DXY Index | ~101.60 | 2-week low |
| UST 10Y Yield | 5.059% | −4.1 bps |
| Fed Rate (Oct) | 3.75–4.00% | Pause (~85%) |
European Market: Old World exchanges are currently slightly down (DAX −0.2%, Euro Stoxx 50 −0.3%) due to rising political uncertainty in France.
Commodities: Sanctions Easing Pushes Brent to $108, Gold Near $4,180
Energy Dynamics: Brent retreated to $108.06 (−1.6%) after US sanctions on supplies were eased. However, risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain after another ship was damaged by a mine.
Precious Metals: Gold is recovering from dollar weakness. Support is at $4,145–4,150, with key resistance at the psychological $4,200 level and the 100-day moving average at $4,240.
Main Reports and Events of the Week (UTC+5)
| Day | Key Releases / Reports | Status / Importance |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday | LPR Rate (China) / Canada CPI / Reports: Netflix, GE Aerospace, GM, 3M | High |
| Wednesday | Big Tech Reports: Tesla, Meta, IBM, Texas Instruments, Lam Research | Critical |
| Thursday | Reports: Lockheed Martin, Nokia, Comcast, Bloom Energy | Medium |
| Friday | Reports: American Express, Schlumberger | Medium |
What Traders Should Watch:
- Week's Climax on Wednesday: Results from Tesla, Meta, IBM, and Lam Research will determine whether AI spending meets earnings expectations. Volatility will peak Wednesday evening and Thursday morning.
- Tech Rebound Fragility: Despite positive futures, the 8-day sell-off in the SOX index indicates this is still countertrend trading ahead of Big Tech earnings releases.
- YouTrade Discipline: Margin usage should not exceed 70% of the deposit. Observe the trading blackout window ±3 minutes around major releases (including Canada CPI on Tuesday and earnings on Wednesday).