Market Review September 11: US Inflation CPI to Decide Fed Rate Fate, Brent Surges Above $107

Today, September 11, 2026, global markets are holding their breath ahead of the week's main macroeconomic event — the release of August's US consumer inflation (CPI). This is the last key report before the Fed's September meeting, where investors are increasingly pricing in a rate hike. The situation is intensified by the oil rally above $107 per barrel due to escalating conflict between the US and Iran, as well as Treasury yields soaring to 2023 highs. Against this backdrop, US indices have fallen for four consecutive sessions, gold consolidates around $4,310–4,365, the euro failed to rise after the ECB rate hike, and Bitcoin slipped below $77,000.

USA: Fourth Consecutive Red Session and Rising Yields

Session results for September 10: American indices closed in the red again under pressure from bonds and expensive commodities. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes jumped to 4.91% (a 2023 high), while 2-year yields continue to rise as the market prices in aggressive Fed moves on September 16. The increase was not halted even by the Treasury's tripled buyback program.

Corporate events and trade wars: The market is gradually pricing in the iPhone Duo lineup presented by Apple's new CEO John Ternus. Meta gained over 6% amid positive feedback on the AI assistant Muse. Trade tensions increased as Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs up to 50% on $20 billion of US imports (steel, lumber, dairy).

Oil: Brent Breaks $107 Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Rally to May highs: The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has pushed oil prices firmly into triple digits. On Thursday, Brent rose more than 5% and broke $107 per barrel, while US WTI confidently held above $100.

Impact on related markets: Expensive commodities remain the main inflation driver globally, provoking volatility in related assets — from rising commodity currencies (Canadian dollar) to deep declines in airline stocks.

Currencies: ECB Rate Raised to 2.50%, Yen Strengthens

ECB decision and euro reaction: The European regulator raised all three key rates by 25 bps, setting the deposit rate at 2.50%. However, EUR/USD failed to hold above and trades in the 1.1600–1.1640 corridor due to parallel pressure from a strengthening dollar (DXY remains around 98-99).

Pound and Yen: GBP/USD slipped to 1.3500 awaiting UK macro data. USD/JPY declined to 154.00 amid hot producer price data from Japan, strengthening expectations of aggressive Bank of Japan moves.

Gold Consolidates, Bitcoin Falls Below $77,000

Gold ahead of CPI: Trading occurs in the $4,310–4,365 per ounce range near weekly lows. Its safe-haven status due to geopolitics is offset by high Treasury yields. The inflation release will determine the breakout direction.

Cryptocurrency correction: Bitcoin declines for the fourth consecutive day, dropping below $77,000 (a pullback from the $82,300 peak). Ethereum holds around $2,440–2,480, Solana at $102. BTC-ETF saw a net outflow of $120 million in one day amid investor flight from risk assets.

Friday Events Calendar (UTC)

Summary: The CPI release at 12:30 UTC will ultimately shape expectations ahead of the Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan meetings next week. When trading crypto and precious metals, strictly control the collateral of open positions (margin limit up to 70% of account size).