Oil Above $106, RBA Rate at 15-Year High, and Gold Rebounds: Market Highlights for September 29
On Tuesday, September 29, 2026 (data as of 12:00 Almaty time / UTC+5), global markets remain under dual pressure: geopolitical tensions keep Brent crude above $106, while tight central bank policies push bond yields to multi-year highs.
On Tuesday, September 29, 2026 (data as of 12:00 Almaty time / UTC+5), global markets remain under dual pressure: geopolitical tensions keep Brent crude above $106, while tight central bank policies push bond yields to multi-year highs. The main event of the Asian session was the RBA rate hike to a 15-year peak, while Wall Street prepares to open in the red zone.
Central Banks: RBA Steps on the Gas — Rate at 4.60% and Aussie Rally
Fourth hike this year: The Reserve Bank of Australia unanimously raised the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% — the highest since November 2011. Reasons include sticky inflation (3.5%), expensive fuel due to the Middle East conflict, and strong demand for tech goods amid the AI boom.
Bank and market reaction: RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that fuel and transport prices have reached a "persistently high level." Commercial banks (Macquarie) are already announcing delays in mortgage rate hikes.
Commodities: Diplomacy Stalls — Brent $106+, Gold Attempts to Rebound
Geopolitical premium: Even the resumption of pumping through the Saudi East-West pipeline (3.5 million b/d) did not lower prices. Trump confirmed rejection of Iran's proposal on the Strait of Hormuz, and both sides doubt a deal before the US elections.
Precious metals anomaly: After losing about 4% on Monday due to rising odds of a Fed rate hike (market pricing ~70%), the metal shows only a technical rebound. High real bond yields continue to outweigh geopolitical risk.
Macrostructure: 10-Year UST at 5.24%, US and Japan Watch the Yen
Debt market: The 10-year UST yield rose to 5.24% (highest close since February). Investors fear that energy-driven inflation will force the Fed to maintain a tight policy longer than expected.
Currency coordination: The Japanese Finance Ministry and US Treasury Secretary Bessent called the undervalued yen (USD/JPY 157.51) a joint "problem," hinting at verbal or actual interventions.
AI reporting: In its IPO prospectus, Anthropic disclosed a $42 billion net loss for 2025 on $4.6 billion revenue and $518 billion in computing liabilities, demonstrating the colossal cost of the AI race.
Calendar for Today (September 29, Almaty Time)
| Time | Event / Release | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| — | RBA Rate Decision | 4.60% (actual) |
| 13:00 | Spain CPI (September) | — |
| 14:00 | Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indices | — |
| 19:00 | JOLTS: US Job Openings (Aug) | 7.24 million |
| 19:00 | CB Consumer Confidence Index (September) | — |
Practical Takeaways for Traders:
- Overnight volatility: Events have shifted to the Asian session (RBA, Iran). Holding positions overnight carries gap risk.
- Correlation breakdown: Do not buy gold "blindly" on geopolitical grounds — rising UST yields (5.24%) outweigh its safe-haven status.
- Release marathon: Today JOLTS (19:00), tomorrow PCE, Friday NFP. Reduce lot size in ±15-minute windows around releases due to spread widening.