Technical Pause Before Inflation: US Government Bonds Closed and Oil Reversal from $105
On Monday, October 12, 2026 (data as of 13:15 Almaty time / UTC+5), the week started with restrained growth in Europe and a pullback in oil. Geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf briefly pushed Brent prices above $105.
On Monday, October 12, 2026 (data as of 13:15 Almaty time / UTC+5), the week started with restrained growth in Europe and a pullback in oil. Geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf briefly pushed Brent prices above $105, but by the opening of European markets the risk premium decreased. An important detail of the day — the US bond market is closed (Columbus Day), causing the stock sector to trade without usual debt benchmarks amid reduced liquidity.
Debt Market and Fed: Technical Pause Before CPI Inflation
Pause in bonds: The US government bond market is closed due to Columbus Day. Friday’s UST 10Y yield was fixed at 5.237% after a pullback from 2002 highs (~5.37%). Prediction markets price only a 16.5% chance of a rate hike in October but maintain a 74.5% probability of a 0.25% increase in December.
Currency shifts: The People’s Bank of China set the strongest yuan rate since February 2023, while the Indian rupee strengthens thanks to measures by the Reserve Bank of India.
Stocks and Currencies: Cautious European Gains and US Futures in the Green
Market dynamics: Germany’s DAX gains about +0.7% (~25,260), continuing Friday’s rebound. US stock futures show moderate positive sentiment: S&P 500 (+0.16%), Nasdaq 100 (+0.39%). The Tokyo stock exchange is closed due to a national holiday.
Currency desk: EUR/USD trades around 1.1200 with stable USD/JPY (158.16). Trading activity is reduced due to holidays in Japan, Brazil, and Argentina.
| Instrument / Pair | Current / Futures | Change for the day |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ~1.1200 | — |
| DAX (Europe) | 25,260 | +0.70% |
| S&P 500 (Futures) | 7,824 | +0.16% |
| Nasdaq 100 (Futures) | 31,005 | +0.39% |
| Nikkei 225 | 69,031 (Fri) | Holiday |
Commodities: Geopolitical Oil Impulse Fades and Gold at $4,196
Brent dynamics: The morning spike in oil above $105 due to attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure was fully retraced to $103.5 (−0.8%). The market smoothed the geopolitical shock with expectations of diesel supplies and the IEA’s preparation for the October 15 meeting on releasing reserves.
Precious metals: Gold maintained Friday’s gain at $4,196 (briefly rising above $4,200 in Asia). The December futures trade at $4,216.30.
Key Events Calendar of the Week (UTC+5)
| Date | Event / Release | Status / Importance |
|---|---|---|
| Mon (12.10) | Speech by Cleveland Fed President Hummock / US debt market closed | UST Holiday |
| Tue (13.10) | Start of US bank earnings season for Q3 | High |
| Wed (14.10) | US Consumer Inflation (CPI) for September | Main news |
| Thu (15.10) | US PPI / TSMC Report / IEA Council Meeting | High |
What traders should pay attention to:
- Trading with thin liquidity: The closed US debt market and holidays in Asia and Latin America may provoke sharp non-local spikes and wider spreads.
- Preparation for Wednesday’s CPI: Inflation expectations in the US have risen (4.7%). Wednesday’s data will be the main trigger for retesting yield highs.
- YouTrade discipline: Margin load limit is 70% of the deposit. Trading within ±3 minutes around major news (including Wednesday’s CPI) is prohibited.