Start of the week June 22: Markets hold their breath in anticipation of the US PCE inflation index, China decides on the LPR rate, and Brent holds at $80

The beginning of a new week June 22, 2026 is marked by increased caution among investors. Market attention is focused on the geopolitical situation surrounding the US and Iran, the prospects for further policies of global central banks, and the upcoming releases of key macroeconomic statistics.

📈 Stock Markets: Cautious Start to the Week and Mixed Dynamics

American futures opened the week with a decline. Investors are assessing the risks of a new round of tensions in the Middle East following mutual statements from the US and Iran, while also continuing to analyze signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the future trajectory of interest rates.

In Europe, the dynamics remain subdued. The STOXX Europe 600 index is trading near last week's closing levels, as weak industrial performance and ongoing trade risks limit interest in risk assets. Asian markets show mixed dynamics: the Japanese Nikkei is holding near local highs, while Chinese indices remain under pressure due to weakness in the construction sector and domestic consumer demand.

🛢 Commodity Market: Attempts to Stabilize Oil Prices

After a sharp decline in mid-June, the oil market is trying to stabilize. Brent is trading near the $80 per barrel mark, while American WTI is around $78–79 per barrel. Despite previously reached agreements between the US and Iran, investors continue to closely monitor the situation around the Strait of Hormuz, which remains one of the key routes for global oil trade.

🏦 Central Banks and Macroeconomics: Focus on PCE and PMI

Following the recent Fed meeting, markets continue to assess the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy. Currently, the market expects a continuation of a hawkish stance from the world's major regulators, as inflation risks remain relevant.

🇨🇳 China in Focus: Decision on LPR Rate

One of the important events of the week will be the decision on the LPR rate in China. Investors are hoping to receive clear signals about the People's Bank of China's readiness to support the economy through stimulating lending, the construction sector, and domestic demand. Any additional support measures could have an immediate impact on commodity markets, the industrial sector, and global demand for metals.

🇰🇿 Kazakhstan: Maintaining a Positive Background

The financial market in Kazakhstan confidently maintains a positive background after the recent reduction of the base rate by the National Bank to 17.0%. The decrease in inflation and gradual, systematic easing of monetary policy continue to provide reliable support to the domestic financial market.

⚠️ Key Risks of the Week:

• 📌 Geopolitical situation surrounding the US and Iran.
• 📌 Inflation data of the PCE index in the US.
• 📌 Business activity (PMI) of the largest global economies.
• 📌 Upcoming decisions and comments from speakers of global central banks.
• 📌 Current state of the Chinese economy and real prospects for additional stimulus.

⚡ Summary: Global markets start the week in a state of anticipation. Investors are closely monitoring geopolitical events, inflation statistics, and signals from central banks. These factors will determine the dynamics of currency, commodity, and stock markets in the coming days.