Markets freeze in anticipation of ISM and US reports, yen hits anti-records above 162, while gold and crypto continue prolonged correction
Global markets on July 1, 2026, begin the second half of the year after one of the strongest quarters in recent years. Investors continue to assess the prospects of the global economy, further actions of the largest central banks
Global markets on July 1, 2026 begin the second half of the year after one of the strongest quarters in recent years. Investors continue to assess the prospects of the global economy, further actions of the largest central banks, and the impact of geopolitical factors on raw and stock markets. The main events of the day included the publication of PMI manufacturing indices, preliminary inflation data in the Eurozone, the final transition of the EU cryptocurrency market under MiCA regulation, and expectations for new signals from the US Federal Reserve.
US Stock Market: Moderate Profit Taking
After impressive growth in the second quarter, American indices have shifted to moderate profit taking. Despite the local correction, the market maintains a strong upward trend due to ongoing investor interest in the artificial intelligence sector and semiconductor manufacturers. The corporate sector is under pressure: Nike shares are down more than 3% after weak forecasts and declining sales in China. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of the ISM manufacturing index and the ADP employment report, which may influence expectations regarding the Fed's future policy.
Stock Markets in Europe and Asia
Europe: European indices are trading mostly in neutral territory (Euro Stoxx 50: -0.2%). The market is assessing preliminary inflation data in Germany and France, which turned out to be lower than analysts' forecasts. This strengthens expectations for a softer policy from the European Central Bank in the coming months. Additional attention from investors is focused on the speeches of representatives of the largest central banks at the ECB forum in Sintra.
Asia: The trading session ended mostly with gains. The Nikkei 225 added +1.79%, the South Korean KOSPI rose by +1.52%, while the Chinese CSI 300 remained around the zero mark. The Japanese market was supported by strong Tankan index data and growth in the technology sector. In China, signs of slowing industrial activity persist, continuing to pressure investor sentiment.
Currency Market: Strengthening Dollar and USD/JPY Records
US Dollar: The dollar index (DXY) is strengthening and is around 101.30 points. Strong labor market data, resilient consumption, and expectations that the Fed may maintain a hawkish stance in the second half of the year support the US currency.
Euro and Yen: The EUR/USD pair is declining to 1.1410 after the publication of weaker inflation data in the Eurozone. At the same time, the USD/JPY pair remains above the 162 mark, staying near multi-year highs. The market continues to await possible intervention by Japanese authorities to support the national currency.
Commodity Markets: Stable Oil and Metal Correction
Oil: The oil market remains stable. The price of North Sea Brent is around $73.25 per barrel, while American WTI is around $70 per barrel. Stable global demand supports prices, but the resumption of negotiations between the US and Iran limits the potential for further price increases.
Precious Metals: Gold continues to correct after strong growth in previous months. Currently, Gold is trading at $3,965 per ounce, while Silver is at $57.70 per ounce. The strengthening dollar and expectations of sustained high interest rates reduce the attractiveness of safe-haven assets.
Cryptocurrencies: Launch of MiCA in the EU and Pressure on Bitcoin
Today marks the final stage of cryptocurrency market regulation in the European Union under MiCA. For companies without the appropriate licenses, working with clients from the EU becomes significantly more difficult. Against this backdrop, major cryptocurrencies remain under pressure.
Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $59,000. During the session, the leading cryptocurrency updated its annual low and tested the $58,000 area, after which it managed to partially recover its positions. At the same time, Ethereum (ETH) is trading near its local lows.
📅 Macroeconomic Events of the Day (Almaty Time, GMT+5):
| 15:00 | Preliminary consumer price index (CPI) for the Eurozone for June. |
| 20:15 | ADP employment report for the US private sector. |
| 20:00–21:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI index for the US. |
| Throughout the day | Speeches by representatives of the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England at the forum in Sintra. |
⚠️ Main Risks for the Markets:
- 📌 Possible tightening of Fed policy in the second half of the year.
- 📌 Slowing Chinese economy and weakness in the real estate market.
- 📌 Ongoing trade disputes between the US and Europe.
- 📌 Volatility in the cryptocurrency market after the MiCA regulation comes into effect.
- 📌 Market reactions to inflation and employment data.
⚡ Summary of the Day: The first trading day of the second half of the year is taking place with caution after the record growth of American indices in the second quarter. Investors continue to bet on the technology sector and artificial intelligence, but market attention is gradually shifting to inflation, the labor market, and further actions of the largest central banks. Key events of the day will be inflation data in the Eurozone, US employment statistics, and the ISM manufacturing index, which may set the direction for global markets in the coming weeks.