Markets After the Fed: Kevin Warsh Tightens Forecasts (Rate at 3.8%), Brent Oil Drops to Around $77, and Asia Continues to Grow

Global financial markets on June 18, 2026 continue to actively react to the consequences of yesterday's decision by the Federal Reserve System of the USA and the diplomatic agreement between the USA and Iran. The main themes of the day remain the decline in oil prices, updated Fed forecasts, and expectations for further dynamics in the global economy. Despite keeping the interest rate unchanged, the unexpectedly hawkish rhetoric from the American regulator has forced investors to reassess their expectations regarding monetary policy for the rest of the year.

📈 Stock Markets: Mixed Dynamics After the Fed's Verdict

After the publication of the results of the resonant Fed meeting, sentiments in global trading venues remain mixed. The American market is meticulously assessing the regulator's new forecasts for inflation and the trajectory of interest rates. Investors continue to closely monitor comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh regarding the next steps of the American Central Bank.

European markets are demonstrating quite restrained dynamics — pressure here remains firmly due to weak industrial performance, a general slowdown in economic growth, and uncertainty surrounding foreign trade policy. In Asia, the situation looks significantly better: the Japanese index Nikkei 225 confidently holds near historical highs, the South Korean Kospi continues its growth thanks to strong results from the technology sector, while Chinese markets remain under pressure from weak domestic demand and prolonged issues in the real estate sector.

🛢 Oil Market: Brent Stabilizes Near $77–78 After the Memorandum

Oil rightfully remains one of the main drivers and centers of attention in global markets. After the official signing of the memorandum between the USA and Iran, investors continue to factor in the reduced risks of physical supply disruptions of raw materials through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. At the time of preparing this review, the Brent blend is trading near $77–78 per barrel, while Texas WTI is holding around $74–75 per barrel. The systematic decline in energy prices is noticeably contributing to the easing of inflationary pressure in many economies worldwide; however, at the same time, it exerts significant pressure on commodity countries and the energy sector.

🏦 Macroeconomic Background: Tough Forecasts from the American Regulator

The main and most resonant event of the last 24 hours was the long-awaited decision by the Federal Reserve System of the USA. The Fed predictably kept the current interest rate unchanged; however, the updated medium-term macroeconomic forecasts from the regulator turned out to be much tougher than the market had anticipated.

This directly signals that the uncompromising fight against inflation remains the main priority for the American regulator, despite the recorded slowdown in economic growth rates. Additional attention from investors today is also drawn to: the recent decision of the Swiss National Bank on interest rates, macro data on inflation in the UK and the Eurozone, as well as the bond market's reaction to the updated Fed forecasts.

📊 What Investors Are Paying Attention to Today:

• 📌 Direct consequences of the Fed's tough decision and updated macro forecasts from the regulator.
• 📌 Further dynamics of crude oil prices after the agreement between the USA and Iran.
• 📌 Prospects for the development of the global economy against the backdrop of a general slowdown in global growth.
• 📌 The current state of the Chinese economy and internal risks of the national real estate market.
• 📌 Dynamics of yields on US Treasury bonds.

⚡ Summary: Global financial markets continue to balance between the pronounced positive effect of falling prices for basic energy resources and the tougher, hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve System of the USA. Investors' main focus is now gradually shifting to further specific signals from central banks and the analytical assessment of how quickly the decline in inflation can offset the slowdown in global economic growth.