Market Overview August 3: US-Iran De-escalation Crashes Brent to $83.60, Yen Rises to 156.50 After Intervention, and Alibaba Soars on New AI Model
Global financial markets began the week with a moderately positive trend. The main driver was the decrease in geopolitical tension in the Middle East following statements about the resumption of diplomatic negotiations between
Global financial markets began the week with a moderately positive trend. The main driver was the decrease in geopolitical tension in the Middle East following statements about the resumption of diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran. This led to a sharp decline in oil prices, supported stock markets, and eased inflation expectations. Investors are focused today on the publication of business activity indices (PMI), the US ISM manufacturing index, the OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting, and a series of corporate reports.
US and European Futures Rise, Alibaba Soars on New AI Model
US and Europe: Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up 0.5–0.7% ahead of reports from Palantir, Marriott, and Vertex. In Europe, the STOXX 600, DAX, and CAC 40 indices are rising by 0.4–1.2% due to falling energy prices. The tourism sector is leading, while AstraZeneca has dropped on rumors of a deal with Bristol Myers Squibb.
Asia: The Nikkei lost 1% due to the strengthening yen. The KOSPI plummeted more than 5% due to profit-taking in Samsung and SK Hynix. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng rose: Alibaba shares soared after the announcement of the AI model Qwen 3.8-Max.
Oil Correction: Brent Falls to $83.60, Gold Holds at $4,110
Oil: The market is experiencing a sharp decline. Expectations of de-escalation between the US and Iran and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Brent down to $83.60–84.10, and WTI to $79.80–80.20. Investors are awaiting the results of the OPEC+ committee meeting.
Gold: The precious metal remains stable in the range of $4,110–4,125 per ounce, supported by declining Treasury yields.
Yen Strengthens to 156.50 After US and Japan Intervention
Currencies: The dollar is under pressure, EUR/USD is rising. The yen surged to 156.50–156.90 after a joint intervention by the US and Japan's Ministry of Finance. The probability of a September rate hike by the Bank of Japan is estimated at 64%.
Bonds: The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.69% amid fading inflation concerns.
Bitcoin Drops to $62,500 Due to Coldcard Vulnerability and ETF Outflows
The crypto sector remains under pressure: Bitcoin fell to $62,500–63,100 (-1.3% in a day). Negative factors included reports of vulnerabilities in Coldcard hardware wallets and ongoing capital outflows from spot BTC ETFs.
Key Events of the Day (August 3):
| Time / Status | Region | Event |
|---|---|---|
| Throughout the day | Global | PMI indices in the manufacturing sector for July (US, Eurozone, UK, China) |
| Throughout the day | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI index, construction spending data, and auto sales |
| Throughout the day | OPEC+ | OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting |
| After market close | US | Reports from Palantir, Marriott, Vertex, Diamondback Energy |
Summary: The week begins with a recovery in risk appetite. The decrease in geopolitical tension has led to a sharp drop in oil prices and supported global stock markets. Meanwhile, investors are focused on today's US macroeconomic statistics and corporate earnings reports, which will determine the further direction of global financial markets.