Investors Return to Risk: AI Giants Back in Focus, Gold Holds at $4000, and Markets Await Sintra Forum and Non-Farm Payrolls
Global financial markets on June 29, 2026, begin a new week with moderate optimism. After the volatility of recent weeks, investors are gradually returning to risk assets amid decreasing geopolitical tensions.
Global financial markets on June 29, 2026 begin a new week with moderate optimism. After the volatility of recent weeks, investors are gradually returning to risk assets amid decreasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and stabilization of energy prices. At the same time, market participants remain cautious ahead of the publication of key macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. and speeches from representatives of the world's largest central banks.
U.S.: Confident Recovery and Inclusion of SpaceX in Nasdaq-100
The American market is demonstrating a confident recovery. The technology sector is providing the main support to the market. After last week's correction, investors are once again showing interest in companies related to artificial intelligence and high technology. An additional driver of sentiment has been the inclusion of SpaceX in the Nasdaq-100 index, which has heightened interest in the technology sector as a whole.
The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious rhetoric. Despite keeping the rate unchanged, Fed representatives do not rule out the possibility of further tightening monetary policy if inflationary pressures persist.
Europe: Waiting Mode Ahead of Sintra Forum
European markets remain in waiting mode. The STOXX Europe 600 index is trading near neutral values, and investors are focused on the annual central bankers' forum in Sintra (Portugal). Weakness in the industrial sector and tariff risks continue to limit the growth potential of European indices.
🔍 In focus for European investors:
• inflation expectations in the Eurozone;
• official speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde;
• medium-term prospects for further changes in interest rates.
Asia: Mixed Dynamics and Pressure in South Korea
Asian markets finished the session mixed. The Japanese market maintains a positive outlook due to falling energy prices and strong domestic demand.
Chinese indices received support from liquidity stimulus measures by the People's Bank of China, although economic indicators remain mixed: industrial production (+4.5% y/y), fixed asset investment (-4.1% y/y), real estate market (-3.5% y/y).
The Korean market came under pressure. The Kospi index fell by more than 2% after the decline in shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix amid news of large-scale investment programs that raised concerns about the future profitability of the companies.
Commodity Markets: Oil Recovery Attempt and Gold at $4000
Oil
After a sharp decline at the end of last week, the oil market is attempting to recover. Prices are supported by a relative stabilization of the situation around the Strait of Hormuz and expectations of new negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Current quotes: Brent — around $72.5 per barrel, WTI — around $70 per barrel.
Gold
Gold remains near $4000 per troy ounce. Demand for safe-haven assets is gradually decreasing as geopolitical risks ease, however, expectations regarding Fed rates continue to support interest in precious metals.
Currency Market: Stable Dollar and Anticipation of Yen Interventions
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) remains stable. EUR/USD holds below 1.1400; USD/JPY trades around 161.8. The Norwegian krone remains one of the weakest currencies in G10 following the drop in oil prices. The market continues to closely monitor potential currency interventions from the Bank of Japan.
📅 Economic Calendar (Kazakhstan Time)
⏱️ 15:00 — Consumer inflation expectations in the Eurozone.
⏱️ 20:30 — Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (U.S.).
⏱️ 23:30 — Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.
Additionally, today investors will be monitoring retail sales in Japan, Sweden's trade balance, preliminary inflation in Spain, and retail sales in Spain.
⭐ Key Events of the Week:
- central bankers' forum in Sintra;
- Eurozone inflation data;
- Non-Farm Payrolls report in the U.S.;
- new signals from the Fed and ECB regarding interest rates.
* As American markets will operate on a shortened schedule due to the celebration of the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence, heightened sensitivity to incoming statistics is expected.
⚠️ Main Risks:
- 📌 profit-taking in the technology sector;
- 📌 likelihood of further tightening by the Fed;
- 📌 geopolitical tensions in the Middle East;
- 📌 high volatility in the oil market;
- 📌 slowdown in global industrial activity.
⚡ Conclusion: The start of the week is marked by cautious recovery. The technology sector is once again becoming a driver of growth, oil stabilizes after recent declines, and investors are gradually returning to risk assets. However, the further direction of the markets will depend on upcoming U.S. economic data, signals from central banks, and the development of the situation surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations.