Market Review September 8: Brent Approaches $99, Yen Hits 7-Month Highs, and China Surprises with Export Surge

On September 8, 2026, global markets are trading cautiously. Geopolitical tensions are once again driving oil prices higher, intensifying concerns about a new wave of inflation and further interest rate hikes. Brent has approached $99 per barrel, the Japanese yen hit a seven-month high, European indices are declining, and U.S. stock futures are slightly down. Meanwhile, strong Chinese trade data and growth in technology companies support select Asian markets. The main events of the week will be the ECB decision, U.S. inflation data, and Oracle's quarterly report.

USA: Market Returns After Long Weekend

Pre-holiday results: On Monday, U.S. exchanges were closed for Labor Day. In the previous session, major indices closed lower due to a strong employment report (162,000 jobs in August, unemployment at 4.1%), which reduced hopes for Fed policy easing.

Fed rate expectations: The semiconductor sector gained about 3.4% thanks to the AI trend, but Lululemon (-17.4%) and Adobe (-6.7%) fell due to weak forecasts. Ahead of today's open, S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%. The probability of a 25 bps Fed rate hike on September 15–16 is estimated at 60%.

Europe: Expensive Oil Revives Inflation Concerns

Index and sector dynamics: STOXX 600 loses about 0.2% (648.41 points), DAX -0.3%, CAC 40 -0.4%, while FTSE 100 trades near flat. The main negative factor is the surge in energy prices, which risks fueling inflation. Additionally, an unexpected 0.8% drop in German exports in July adds pressure.

Corporate events and ECB: Novartis shares plunged 8.8% after the failure of the del-desiran drug trials, Sandoz rose 2.9%, and Poste Italiane declined. On Thursday, the ECB will announce its rate decision: the base scenario expects a 25 bps hike.

Asia: China Surprises with Exports, South Korea Leads

Mixed dynamics: South Korea's KOSPI soared 1.2% thanks to AI chips, Nikkei 225 gained only 0.2% due to yen strengthening, MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan +0.2%, while the Australian market fell 0.6%.

China's export breakthrough: China showed strong August data: exports jumped 25% year-on-year, imports rose 28.2%, and the monthly trade surplus reached $119.09 billion. Chip exports more than doubled, reflecting high global demand for AI technologies.

Japan: Yen Hits Seven-Month High

Sharp currency move: The USD/JPY pair fell to 152.89 — the yen's highest level since February (currently around 153.48). Since the start of last week, the yen has gained 4.5%.

Growth factors: The Japanese currency is supported by expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, real wage growth (+2.4% year-on-year in July), unwinding of carry trade deals, and capital repatriation. The key technical support level for USD/JPY is 150.

Oil: Brent Storms Toward $100 Mark

Prices: Brent rose to $98.25 per barrel (+1.3%, high $98.79), WTI climbed to $93.70 (+2.4%, high $94.21). These are the highest levels since summer.

Reasons and forecasts: The driver was the military conflict in the Middle East, threats from Iran, and Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities. Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 targets for Brent to $85 and WTI to $80. Alternative supplies from the UAE and the U.S., as well as slowing demand in China, hinder prices from holding above $100.

Gold, Currencies, Bonds, and Cryptocurrencies

Gold and currencies: Spot gold holds near record $4,407 per ounce (+0.1%), futures at $4,452. The dollar is near a two-week low (DXY 98.84; EUR/USD 1.1623), while the yuan strengthens to 6.71. The yield on 10-year U.S. bonds rose to 4.79%.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin trades around $79,330 (+0.1%), Ethereum at $2,499 (+0.2%). BTC resistance range is at $82,000–83,000, support at $75,500–76,000.

Main Events of the Week

Summary: Markets are driven by a triad of factors: geopolitics, oil, and rate expectations. Brent's surge toward $100 will increase inflationary pressure and tighten regulators' stance. If U.S. inflation data (CPI) come in softer than expected, bond yields will fall, paving the way for gains in tech, gold, and crypto; if they exceed forecasts, a deeper correction is possible.