Market Review September 15: Treasuries Yield Hits 5.02%, Fed Begins Meeting, Software Stocks Reach Records

Today, September 15, 2026, the US Federal Reserve opens a two-day meeting, while the bond market has already delivered its verdict: the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.02% this morning — the highest since 2007. Futures indicate about a 92–93% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike — the first increase since July 2023. The situation is fueled by the geopolitical crisis: the shutdown of the Saudi East-West pipeline keeps Brent at $107.5. On Wall Street, a historic rotation from chips to software is underway, gold is fighting for the $4,300 mark, and Bitcoin has recovered to $78,000 on the day of the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act in the US Senate.

Rates: 5% — The New Reality for the Bond Market

Record Yields: On Tuesday morning, the yield on 10-year US Treasury notes rose another 10 basis points to 5.022%, while 30-year notes hold near 5.35%. Government debt is being sold off worldwide amid concerns that the US-Iran military conflict will drive inflation higher through oil prices and force regulators to maintain tight conditions longer.

Focus on the Fed: Tomorrow, investors’ attention will be less on the decision itself (a rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% range is almost fully priced in) and more on the dot plot forecasts and Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 18:30 UTC.

Stocks: The Great Rotation from Chips to Software

Session Summary and Sector Divergence: Monday closed with moderate losses on Wall Street (Dow −0.3%, S&P 500 −0.5%, Nasdaq −0.5%). However, a rare rotation occurred within the market: warnings about the risks of overly rapid AI development hit semiconductors (sector down ~5%, Nvidia −2%) but boosted software giants.

Movement Leaders: Salesforce rose 4%, Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike soared +13%, and the sector software ETF gained 5%. Such a one-day divergence between chips and software has not been seen in 25 years. Futures are down 0.4–0.5% this morning.

Oil: Saudi Pipeline Premium Supports Prices

Price Gains: Brent added another 1.8% to $107.5, while WTI trades around $103.4. The shutdown of the main Saudi East-West pipeline after a drone attack keeps physical supply limited in the market.

Negotiations in Oman: Investors await news from the postponed diplomatic summit. Without a resolution to the conflict, the military premium remains a key inflationary factor pressuring the bond market.

Gold and Currencies: Metals Rebound and Yen Under Pressure

Gold Bounces Off the Bottom: Monday ended with a decline to $4,253–4,278, but on Tuesday buyers pushed prices back to contest the $4,300 level. Bulls need to hold above the 100-day moving average ($4,351) to resume the move toward $4,400. Support is at the 50-day moving average near $4,271.

Currency Market: USD/JPY rises toward 155.00. The yen is under pressure from the Fed’s hawkish stance and awaits the Bank of Japan’s meeting results on Friday. The DXY index holds near weekly highs; the euro and pound remain in narrow ranges.

Crypto: Recovery to $78,000 Ahead of CLARITY Act Vote

Market Dynamics: Bitcoin recovered 2% from Monday’s lows and returned to $78,000. Ethereum holds the $2,520 level, XRP trades at $1.38.

Regulatory Day: The US Senate has scheduled a procedural (cloture) vote on the CLARITY Act bill. Its successful passage will pave the way for the final adoption of the industry regulation document.

Tuesday Events Calendar (UTC)

Summary: The record surge in 10-year yields above 5% and Brent at $107.5 create a tense backdrop ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision. We remind you of the need for strict risk control: the total margin of open positions must not exceed 70% of the account margin at any time (including overnight rolls).